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29 October 2010
Can someone explain to me why any college football program would choose to play a game on Friday night? What recruit is going to be able to even see you play on ESPN? The allure of being on national TV isn't so great when no one is watching you. Also, remember a few years ago when all West Virginia had to do was beat a bad Pittsburgh team and they would have played for a national title? That was 2007. A few years later, and they're playing their second Friday night game this season. West Virginia sucks, so maybe they'll take Rich Rodriguez back when he gets fired in a month or so. On to the picks...
Penn State +3 vs. Michigan; This game breaks two big rules I have for gambling. I never bet on Michigan games and I never bet on coaches who wear diapers. But, Michigan is awful and can't beat Penn State in Happy Valley and Joe Paterno is likely to be asleep before the game even kicks off. Penn State has been planning a Whiteout (not talking about their linebackers) since April for this game. A young Michigan team is not going to react well to the extremely hostile crowd. Denard Robinson is coming off an injury and with RichRod's offensive (meaning irritating, not when Michigan has the football) schemes, he's likely to get hurt again tomorrow night. Penn State will not let their drunk fans down and will win big over the Wolverines.- Mississippi State -6 vs. Kentucky; Jimmy from Pippa Passes was going to email me about how good Randall Cobb is, but it's basketball season, so he doesn't care about UK's football squad anymore. Kentucky will inevitably get down by multiple touchdowns in the first half and make a feeble attempt at a comeback, but they just don't have the offensive firepower without Derrick Locke in the lineup. Mississippi State Head Coach, Dan Mullen, is auditioning to take over for Urban Meyer (when Meyer retires at the end of the year) so he won't want to screw up and lose to Kentucky. Mississippi State will give the mouthbreathers who live in Starkville something to cheer about and win by 14.
- Northwestern -3 @ Indiana; Pat Fitzgerald is doing a hell of a job at Northwestern. They played Michigan State really close last week and the Wildcats are poised to make a third straight bowl appearance. I expect the Wildcats to bounce back after last week's loss and dominate the Hoosiers.
- Notre Dame -8.5 vs. Tulsa; Notre Dame has the, "Win one for Declan" mentality going into this game. They were also embarrassed on national television last weekend by a military academy. Those two things make for a long afternoon for the Golden Hurricane (What the hell is a Golden Hurricane? Is it a really crazy golden shower?). Notre Dame wins by double-digits.
- Florida +2.5 vs. Georgia; There are some coaches you just cannot bet against when they're coming off of a bye week. Urban Meyer is one of those coaches. Give that man two weeks to prepare for a team and he's going to beat them. Don't forget that there is no love lost between Meyer and Mark Richt. The Gators are going to be ready to end their current three game losing streak, and they will. Florida wins this game by a touchdown.
- Auburn -7 @ Mississippi; Cam Newton is really, really good. His touchdown run last week against LSU was the second most impressive play of the season (behind Denard's 87 yard TD run at Notre Dame). Don't let the, "Number 1 has lost on the road three weeks in a row!" crowd distract you from how well this Auburn team is playing right now. Plus, Ole Miss has lost to Jacksonville State and Vandy (by 14) this year. They are not keeping this game within a touchdown. Cam Newton has a Heisman-worthy performance and the Tigers roll by 20+.
Last week: 4-2
Season: 24-21-3
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23 October 2010
You're in luck Stadium Drives readers! We're one week removed from one of the most embarrassing losses in Florida football history, and no announcement has been made about replacing (or possibly dismembering) offensive coordinator Steve Addazio. Which means one thing...more complaining from me!!
You see, it appears the national perception is that Gator fans are merely being whiny and impatient as we watch this team stumble around looking clueless. Everyone from ESPN to Sports Illustrated has been mocking Gator Nation as having unrealistic expectations following two national titles in the last four years. As an example, Michael Wilbon, who I normally enjoy listening to, proclaimed that "...this is why college football fans are the absolute worst - grow up! Quit complaining!"
It's this exact sentiment that bothers me. Most reasonable fans entered this season with realistic expectations. We didn't expect a national title. We realized we lost a lot of talent off of last year's team - nine players drafted in the first five rounds of the NFL Draft, including three in the first round. We lost our defensive coordinator - Charlie Strong - to Louisville. We have four new assistant coaches this year. We had a head coach who dealt with health issues and had to force himself to take time off this offseason. We had a ton of young and/or inexperienced players taking over at the skill positions and trying to fill a leadership void. In short - we knew there could be some growing pains this season. You don't easily replace what Tim Tebow, Brandon Spikes, Brandon James and Joe Haden brought to the team - you just don't.
But with that being said...this is still Florida. We may not have been planning for 14-0 and another crystal football, but we certainly expect our players, no matter how young, to live up to their potential. We expect our coaches to have players prepared each week to give their best effort. And quite frankly, that hasn't happened.
Here's what I mean:
- I don't think it's unreasonable to expect to have more than 26 yards of total offense through three quarters against Miami of Ohio.
- I don't think it's unreasonable to expect a center to be able to snap the ball to the quarterback with reasonable accuracy, even if he's not a natural center. Did they not practice this at all in the offseason?
- I don't think it's unreasonable to expect to score more than one touchdown at home against Mississippi State.
- I don't think it's unreasonable to expect our quarterbacks - John Branley and Trey Burton - to have combined for more than six touchdown passes through seven games. Oklahoma State's Brandon Weeden threw for that many in Week 3 alone.
- I don't think it's unreasonable to expect to score in the first quarter. Florida has scored in the first quarter in only one game this year - against Kentucky. Even more embarrassing - they've entered the half four times this year with seven or fewer points.
- I don't think it's unreasonable to expect to be better than 91st in yards per game (behind Louisiana-Lafayette, North Texas and Eastern Michigan), and 64th in points per game (behind Army, Northern Illinois and Central Florida).
- I don't think it's unreasonable to expect an offensive line that returned three starters and at least 10 guys who have seen game action to look so incredibly overmatched nearly every week, having given up 10 sacks through seven games, and only paving the way for only 142 yards rushing per game - good for 75th in the country,
- And finally, I don't think it's unreasonable to expect a team with highly-compensated coaches to fix errors that continue to repeat themselves throughout the season, such as penalties (7.4 per game for almost 54 yards), field-goal kicking (4-9 on the year), or playcalling (approximately 47 dive plays every game).
From afar, I'm sure people may think Florida is struggling because they lost so much talent. They see a team that is 4-3, and think "well - they lost Tebow and all those guys - just struggling to get the new guys going a little. They'll be fine."
Unfortunately, nothing could be further from the truth. The Gators may not have as much talent as last year, but they certainly have more than they've shown. Expecting a team to win a title every year is one thing - every fan base has a few morons who think this way. But expecting a team to play with effort and energy? I hardly think that's being an unrealistic fan.
Of course, Addazio apparently isn't aware there is a problem. Following the loss to LSU, Addazio said the offensive line graded out as well as they ever have. Perhaps he missed DT Drake Nevis taking up permanent residence in the Florida backfield, or the fact that the team put together only two offensive drives over 40 yards all night. He repeated this after the loss to Mississippi State. You know - the game in which they scored only one touchdown. I can't wait to hear what he says after Georgia puts Brantley on his back 15-20 times next weekend. Perhaps he'll explain how the Gators' offense is "still on schedule," falling back on his press conference catchphrase that makes me wonder if he has even been attending the games this year.
But while Addazio sticking around for the rest of the year may cause my blood pressure to rise and lead to me committing horrific acts of violence around my community, you loyal readers shouldn't despair. Instead, take solace in knowing that we still have five more weeks of this, and we've even decided to bring back Chris Rainey (minus his cell phone) to join in the fun! Which means a handful of "Fire Addazio" columns are still on the way this fall. And yes, each one will be worse than the last.
Just like Florida's games.
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22 October 2010
College football must do better than this weekend. There's one game that is worth watching (LSU @ Auburn) and the rest are just background noise for whatever your Saturday afternoon and evening entail. I think I'll go tailgate at Commonwealth. Kentucky may put a crappy product on the field, but the pre-game is top notch. I went 4-2 last week on my picks, so you may want to bet against these this week.
Kentucky +4 vs. Georgia; Jimmy from Pippa Passes has some thoughts on the game:
"The CATS look GOOOOOD. Did you see last week's game against Spurrier and the Cocks? We beat the Cocks who beat Alabama. This CATS team can beat any team in the country!!!! We ARE WINNING the SEC EAST!!! When that happens, people will have NO CHOICE but to vote Randall Cobb as Heisman. Hartline will probably finish 2nd in the Heisman and if Locke wasn't hurt, he'd probably be 3rd. If only we could play Florida right now, we'd beat the Gaters by 4 touchdowns!!! Expect the Cats to win the SEC Championship and go to the Sugar Bowl and end up preseason top 10 next year!!! We're about to be the best BASKETBALL AND FOOTBALL school in the COUNTRY!!! Go CATS!!! WOO!!!!"
Thanks, Jimmy. Kentucky is undefeated against the spread this year at home. Plus they've burned me two weeks in a row. Georgia wins by a field goal at the end.- Alabama -16.5 @ Tennessee; This one could be really tough to watch. First of all, any game Tennessee plays is tough to watch because their offense is so bad. Secondly, Alabama looked less than inspired last week against Ole Miss. Coach Saban needs to remind the Tide that they're still very much in the hunt for playing for a national championship. A one-loss SEC team will jump Boise State/TCU/Utah in the end. The Tide will go to Neyland and win by 3 TDs, 24-3.
- Oklahoma -3 @ Missouri; Oklahoma has wins over Florida State and Texas. Missouri's big win on the season is... Illinois (3-3)? Colorado (3-3)? Texas A&M (3-3)? Basically, Missouri has played no one to get to 6-0 while Oklahoma has played some schools that at least have good football tradition. This game is getting more hype than it should be because of the awful slate of games this weekend. Expect Oklahoma to win by multiple touchdowns.
- Michigan State -6 @ Northwestern; Michigan State has no chance of going undefeated this season, seeing as they still play at Iowa and Penn State. But, the Spartans still think they can run the table. That's the reason they go to Northwestern and run wild on some smart kids. Spartans win by at least 2 TDs.
- Auburn -5.5 vs. LSU; Auburn has one of the best QBs in the SEC in Cam Newton, LSU has two of the worst QBs in the SEC in Jordan Jefferson and Jarrett Lee. Auburn scored 65 points last week, LSU scored 65 points combined in the last TWO weeks. Auburn aspires to win the SEC and play for a national title, LSU is just treading water. Auburn is going to win this game by double-digits.
- Wisconsin +6 @ Iowa; Aren't these teams the exact same? If they switched jerseys at halftime, would anyone know the difference? They both run the ball pretty well and have good players on their defensive fronts. Besides Kirk Ferentz being a really bad football coach, this is an even match. Iowa may win the game, but they're not winning by a touchdown.
Last week: 4-2
Season: 20-19-3
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15 October 2010
My picks last week sucked. My Tennessee pick has provided humor for many. I'm picking all favorites this week, so if you like underdogs, just bet against these...
South Carolina -4.5 @ Kentucky; There is absolutely no reason for this line to be this low. People think that South Carolina is going to have a let-down game after their upset of Alabama last week? That's just not going to happen. Steve Spurrier has never lost to Kentucky and that will not be changing this year. Derrick Locke is most likely out for Kentucky, so they'll be playing a fullback as their only back. Mike Hartline has been playing well for the Cats, but he can't sustain an offense without the help of the running game. Marcus Lattimore should run for as many yards as he wants and the Cocks will win by double digits.- Alabama -20.5 vs. Ole Miss; It's a rough week for Ole Miss. First, they have to play Alabama after the Tide got beat for the first time in almost two years and that's not a team that anyone wants to play. Then, the Ole Miss brass announced that their new mascot is the Rebel Black Bear. There are just no words for how stupid that is. Bet the Tide to cover the 20.5, and bet that the Rebel Black Bear doesn't stay the mascot at Ole Miss for very long.
- USC -2.5 vs. California; USC has lost their last two games by a total of three points. The Trojans were playing two of the best QBs in the country (Jake Locker and Andrew Luck) in those games. Cal's Kevin Riley has put up some nice numbers this year, but he's not on the same level as Locker and Luck. Expect USC to bounce back and get a win over the Bears. Matt Barkley should throw for a ton of yards and the Trojans will win by 10 or more.
- Iowa -3 @ Michigan; This is another line that makes no sense. Michigan's defense showed again last week that they can't stop anyone. Michigan State scored at will until they started working the clock towards the end of the game. And, Denard Robinson's Hesiman campaign came to an abrupt end last weekend. He threw two picks in the red zone and was held to only 86 rushing yards. The system that Rich Rodriguez has implemented at Michigan simply cannot work in the Big 10. As much as I hate to ever pick a Kirk Ferentz coached team to win anything, the Hawkeyes are going to win by at least a touchdown in Ann Arbor.
- Boise State -40.5 @ San Jose State; I never like giving this many points up in a game, but these are special circumstances. You may or may not remember that Alabama played SJSU the first week of the season. Alabama won that game 48-3. Boise State is now to the point in their schedule where they are playing middle school teams like SJSU every week and how much they win by is what the pollsters will be checking. Chris Peterson isn't an idiot and knows that the Broncos need to beat SJSU by more than Alabama did. It won't be classy, but Boise State is going to win by 50+.
- Auburn -3.5 vs. Arkansas; Auburn has quietly become a dark-horse candidate to play in the National Championship game. If they can navigate home games against the Hogs and LSU in the next two weeks, they should be undefeated going into Alabama the last week of the season. Should they beat the Tide and win in the SEC Championship game, they'll be playing for the title. All that to say, Auburn is going to take care of business against Arkansas. It may be a shootout, but Auburn will end up covering the 3.5 in the end. Bet the Tigers.
Last week: 2-4
Season: 16-17-3
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14 October 2010
You wouldn't think it, but we get hundreds (if not thousands) of emails a week from StadiumDrives.com readers. Some of them tell us how great we are, others how bad we are. Often, we'll get tips of stories. Sometimes, sites will even let us know that they stole our work, it was a hit on their site and thank us. Others just write in for advice or have questions about their life. I decided to give the old inbox a cleaning again and pick out some of the best (and worst) emails.* If you can't decipher our e-mail address from the sidebar and would like to send something in, send it via Twitter to @JoshCohron.
Surprise, surprise! Another one of your "locks" didn't hit. Yes, I went to (university name redacted). Yes, our football team won and screwed up one of your bets. No, that does not mean I want you to text me. - (Name withheld), (Location unknown)
Sometimes, I blame gambling losses on girls I know that that went to the university that screwed up my bet. Sometimes, I text them about it. What are they going to do? Sue me?
Which team has the biggest hole to dig out of this season; Vikings, Cowboys, Bengals? - @TylerKY
Brett Favre's Penis-Sized Hole: Vikings; I don't think the Vikings are in that much trouble. They're just getting their QB into game shape and recently traded for the best deep threat in the NFL. Yeah, they're 1-3, but they moved the ball at will in the 2nd half on Monday night against one of the league's best defenses. Plus, the NFC North is in shambles. Don't tell me Chicago is good, because they're not. The Packers couldn't run against Kentucky's defense and Detroit is just awful. Also, you should expect a resurgent Brett Favre after the inevitable teary press conference in a couple weeks, where he apologizes for "making some mistakes." The Vikings can absolutely still win this division and make a Super Bowl run.
Cowboys Stadium-Sized Hole: Cowboys; The Cowboys are in a pretty big hole. They're 1-3 and play the Vikings in Minnesota this weekend, which I'm predicting they'll lose. At 1-4, that locker room is going to crumble under all the media pressure and speculation that Wade Phillips is going to be fired. Don't forget Jerry Jones is hosting the Super Bowl this year at Cowboys Stadium. That certainly doesn't help things, seeing as he was hoping to be having his team playing at home next February. I picked the Cowboys to win their division, but I guess I momentarily forgot about Wade Phillips and his inability to actually coach football.
Crater Lake-Sized Hole: Bengals; After the loss to the Buccaneers on Sunday, one Bengals fan I know said, "What am I supposed to do on Sundays now that football season is over?" The Bengals are done. Here's the rest of their schedule: Falcons, Dolphins, Steelers, Colts, Bills, Jets, Saints, Steelers, Browns, Chargers and Ravens. Let's give them wins against the Bills and the Browns (at home). Are you comfortable saying they're going to win any of their other games? I'm certainly not. The blame shouldn't just be put on one person, it should be put on just about everybody. They are just a bad football team. Let me repeat: The Bengals are done.
To answer the question, the Bengals are in the biggest hole, the Cowboys are in the most expensive hole and the Vikings are in the smallest hole (at least that's what someone who saw the pictures of Favre's dick told me).
If the Phillies sweep the NLCS and World Series, will you acknowledge that the Reds were not frauds? Unrelated: Does Cowherd have dirt on you or something? Why do you support this clown? - @scott_ish
I will stop referring to the Reds as frauds if the Phillies no-hit the Giants and whoever their World Series opponent is. The Phillies will also have to shutout the Giants and their World Series opponent in at least one game. The Giants and whoever the AL representative in the World Series will also have to average 1.3 runs per game against the Phillies in the respective series. If all those things happen, I will say the Reds weren't frauds.
But, the Reds were frauds and everyone should be able to admit that. They played in the worst division in all of baseball and didn't have a winning record against any team with a winning record. Who didn't know they were going to get swept?
And, no, Cowherd has no dirt on me. He just happened to be 100% right on this one. The Reds have the opportunity to be a good team going forward, but they were complete and utter frauds in 2010.
Who is the best golfer in the world who is not black? - @NickGrubb88
I assume you're referring to Tiger Woods as black and as the best golfer in the world. Both of those statements are not definite at this point.
If I have to take a white guy, I'm going with Mickelson. He's won four majors, including winning the Masters three times. He's only 40 years old, and with the way they're making steroids these days, Mickelson could have 8-15 good years left in him. Also, his wife is hot.
(dated 9/23/10) Them Cats are 3-0 and are lookin good!!! We are going to the Swomp and BEATING THE GATERS!!! Mark that down and put it in that mailgbag thinkg you do! I want my credit for calling this one. - Jimmy, Pippa Passes, KY
(dated 9/29/10) The Cats may be down but we ain't out. Weve been beatin Old Miss for years. They got some crook runnin QB and we going to shut them Rebels down! A loss from Florida and we can still play for an SEC CHAMPIONSHIP BABY!!! Keep the hope alive, CATS FANS!!! - Jimmy, Pippa Passes, KY
(dated 10/7/10) I ain't giving up hope yet. We may have lost 2 in a row, but Auburn can not beat Kentucky. I don't care if they are in the top 10, we are just as good as them. 10-2 for the Cats!!! - Jimmy, Pippa Passes, KY
(dated 10/14/10) We are beating Spurrier. The Cocks are riding high since they beat Alabama. WE ARE BEATING SPURRIER!!! - Jimmy, Pippa Passes, KY
Aren't Kentucky football fans great? No matter how bad the team is, their hope never dies. I've never heard more people hypothesize about a subject than these people. "If we hadn't let Auburn get ahead early, then we could have won." "If Newton/Mossakowski/Cobb was the QB, then we would have won." These statements are constant during football season in Lexington.
I've got a hypothesis for Kentucky football. If they had better players, they would win more games. It's really that simple. Kentucky is going to win around 7 games a season, that's it. They're not going to compete to win the SEC East. They don't have the players and probably never will.
Take Kentucky football for what it is: something to do in the fall with your friends if you don't like watching good football teams play on TV.
I think I've done a good enough job pissing off all the readers in the Central and Northern parts of Kentucky (4) and all of our Cincinnati readers (2). I guess I can call it a day. As always, thanks for reading and submitting questions.
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09 October 2010
Question: What's the best way to stop a team full of speedy, talented, creative playmakers?
Answer: Have Steve Addazio call the plays.
Okay I know - not exactly Comedy Central material there. But then again, the decline in Florida's offense since Dan Mullen left after the 2008 BCS Championship Game and Addazio took over as offensive coordinator is no laughing matter for Gators' fans. Since then, we have watched some of the most predictable, boring, unimaginative, conservative playcalling possible, which has hindered the growth of the younger playmakers and stripped the Gators of any confidence on offense.
It led to quite possibly the most joyless, stress-filled 13-1 season ever in 2009, as we watched the the team struggle to put away inferior opponents all year before getting blasted by Alabama in the SEC Championship Game. And this year, we've watched an offense that is so inept, it's almost unrecognizable in a Florida uniform, not to mention a team that has lost two games in a row and looks to have at least two more losses on the schedule unless they get things fixed.
The problem with looking for a fix is that the man responsible for the mess isn't going anywhere. Addazio is a close friend of Urban Meyer, and although the calls for Addazio's head are growing louder and louder in Gator Nation, it's very unlikely we'll see any changes this season. So that means at least six more games of an offense that would have trouble moving the ball in a coed flag football league. Six more games of seeing two runs directly into the middle of the defensive line before lining up for a third-and-long. Six more games of never thinking to throw the ball more than five yards downfield. Six more games of trying, and failing to convert on, gimmicky plays that the rest of the country caught onto two years ago.
How bad is it? In 2008, the last year under Dan Mullen, the Gators averaged 43.6 points per game, and 43.3 points against SEC opponents. In 2009, with much of the same cast on offense (minus WR Percy Harvin), the Gators averaged 35.8 points per game and only 26 points against the SEC. And this year? Well they're putting up just 31 points per game, and 28.5 against the SEC. Of course, those 2010 averages also include a 6-point train wreck of a game against Alabama, a game in which they not only failed to score a touchdown, but also turned it over twice inside the 1-yard line. Now I understand that execution falls on the players, and that turnovers can't directly be blamed on the offensive coordinator. However, in this case, it's hard not to blame Addazio for putting his offense in the positions they've been in all season.
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08 October 2010
After one of the wildest offseasons in recent memory, the NBA season is nearly upon us, and we're that much closer to getting some answers we've wanted all summer. Will the Heat's three superstars be able to work together? Can the Lakers pull off another three-peat? Are the Celtics too old to make another title run? And most importantly...how in the world did Darko Milicic get a $20 million contract?
While the Heat and Lakers will surely (and rightfully) dominate the headlines before, during and after the season, it's important to keep in mind that there's plenty of interesting stories all around the league as we tip-off the 2010-11 season. With that in mind, here's 10 non-Heat, non-Lakers storylines to keep an eye on.
In no particular order...
Can Dwight Howard take the next step? There's no debating the impact that the Magic big man has on a game. He averaged just over 18 points per game last year, to go along with league-leading averages of 13.2 rebounds and 2.8 blocks per game. He's an absolute freak of an athlete who is able to sky above the rim, and the Magic will enter the season on the short list of contenders because of him. However, Howard's game still has plenty of room for improvement, and if the Magic want to win a title, he needs to prove he can take the necessary steps to become a complete player. Howard's offensive game still consists mostly of dunks and putbacks around the basket, and his abysmal free-throw shooting (59 percent last year) makes him a liability late in games. Furthermore, he has started to develop the reputation of a whiner, having earned a league-leading 17 technical fouls last year. In fact, in a four-game sweep of Charlotte in the first round of the playoffs last year, the lasting image is one of Howard throwing his arms in the air in disbelief at every one of the 22 fouls called on him. With the Magic organization seemingly always worried about being overlooked in the NBA's landscape, they need Howard to elevate his game - and his image - this season. Otherwise, they may find themselves coming up short once again.
Remember when? If there's one certainty in sports, it's that nothing lasts forever. No matter how talented an athlete may be, they can't overcome aging (Breett Favre aside). But it's still a little disconcerting to see former superstars now struggling to find work. And as we enter the 2010 season, that's exactly what we're seeing for a trio that once was among the best players in the league. In 2004-05, Tracy McGrady, Allen Iverson and Stephon Marbury were among the top 15 scorers in the league. All three were among the top six in minutes played, and both Iverson and Marbury were among the top five in assists. They filled highlight reels, sold jerseys and adorned billboards and magazine covers. Now? McGrady, once the most dangerous offensive option in the game, is now being relegated to a reserve role on the middling Detroit Pistons after finding few takers on the open market. Iverson, the face of the post-Jordan NBA for a few years, is still looking for a team, thanks to his inability to accept a limited role despite his diminishing skill set. And Marbury, who was supposed one of the first of a new breed of super-athletic, score-first point guards, is little more than a punch line now, as he finishes his career in China following some bizarre behavior that suggests he may not be playing with a full deck. So enjoy the Kobe Bryants, Tim Duncans and Kevin Garnetts while we still can. You never know when they might be just a memory.
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08 October 2010
It's really just a great time in the year. College Football is giving us a great slate of games this weekend. You can sit down in front of your TV at 10AM for Gameday and not get up until it's time to stumble to bed after midnight. There are going to be good games all day long, and as a football fan, what more could you ask for? Add in the multiple Grade I races across the country to wager on and it's damn near a gambler's paradise. I went 4-2 last week and feel really good about my picks this week...
Alabama -7 @ South Carolina; It's time to just bow down and give Nick Saban and Alabama all the credit. They are dominating college football and don't appear to be letting up anytime soon. Also, they are 5-0 ATS (against the spread) this year, so why not keep riding that train until it stops? Will South Carolina's fans be good and oiled up for the game tomorrow? Of course they will! Will it matter? Of course not! Bet the Tide big to win big.- Auburn -6.5 @ Kentucky; Did you hear that loud sound last Saturday about 4PM? It was the hopes and dreams of Kentucky football fans crashing into reality. Kentucky is just not a very good football team and I'm glad people in Lexington (and Pippa Passes) are finally starting to realize that. Auburn, on the other hand, has one of the better dual-threat QBs in college football. The Wildcats have never been able to contain a mobile QB and that doesn't help their chances of keeping things close against the Tigers. I expect Auburn to win handily and you can expect to hear the boo-birds in Commonwealth during the second half of this one.
- Tennessee +11 @ Georgia; This line is by far the oddest on the board this week. Georgia is 1-4 and is coming off of a loss to Colorado (coached by Dan Hawkins). They should be favored, but I thought the line would be around 4 points, not 11. Here's the deal: Tennessee's defense is good and Georgia's offense is bad. Georgia can't score enough to cover 11 against UT! Also, the Vols are +335 on the moneyline. That may be the best value on the board.
- Arkansas -5.5 vs. Texas A&M; The last time you saw Texas A&M, their porous defense was getting exploited by Brandon Weeden and Oklahoma State. I have nothing against Brandon Weeden, but he's nowhere near as good as Ryan Mallett is. Mallett might throw for 500 yards tomorrow against the Aggies. Also, this game is at Cowboys Stadium in Dallas. That stadium was built by Cowboys owner, Jerry Jones. Jerry Jones played football at Arkansas in the 1960s. The Razorbacks are going to win big in Jerry's house.
- Florida -6 vs. LSU; After Florida's last loss (last year, to Alabama), they won their next game (against the #3 team in the country) 51-24, in a game that wasn't as close as the score indicates. LSU's offense is just awful. There's no way else to describe it. Florida will be able to score and LSU won't. It's really that simple. Expect the Gators to make a big statement and beat LSU by 2+ TDs.
- Michigan State +4.5 @ Michigan; Denard Robinson is the most impressive player in the country thus far. I don't think Michigan State can stop him, but I knowt hat Michigan won't be able to stop the Spartans offense. Michigan's defense is statistically the 120th ranked defense in the country. There are only 120 teams in college football. It's time for the annual downward spiral for Rich Rodriguez. I expect Michigan State to beat the Wolverines, so take the Spartans at +160 on the moneyline.
Last week: 4-2
Season: 14-13-3
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06 October 2010
There are a lot of things I want to bitch about today, so let's just get straight to the bullet points...
I don't want to go to Keeneland this fall. If you know me very well, that statement probably shocks you. Keeneland and I go together like Kentucky football fans and unrealistic expectations. But, the new parking has made Keeneland more of a hassle than it's worth. You can take a look at the new parking map here. Basically, you can pay to park, park on the muddiest hill in the world or tailgate approximately four miles from the track. All of those options suck. If you pay $5 to park, $5 to get in, $5 for a program and $5 for a beer, you have given Keeneland $20 before making a bet. That's just not worth it. I, for one, will be boycotting the Fall Meet (read: gambling at home). Who's with me?- There are really no losers in the Randy Moss trade. The Vikings get better, the Patriots get a cancer out of their locker room and Randy Moss gets to go play for a team that will throw him the ball. I don't get people's rash reactions to this. Calm down, people. Bill Belichick is still the best coach in the NFL. Tom Brady is still the greatest human on the planet. The Patriots will be fine.
- Michigan's defense is the worst in the country. Seriously, they gave up 35 points and 568 yards of offense to Indiana. Keep in mind, Indiana hadn't gotten that many yards against (FCS) Towson, Western Kentucky or Akron. I can't figure out if the problem is Rich Rodriguez, (Defensive Coordinator) Greg Robinson or the fact that Rodriguez and Robinson are coaching together, but I'm positive at least two of those are the reason why the defense is so bad. Michigan State might hang 70 in Ann Arbor on Saturday (but Denard might hang 77).
- Notre Dame is 2-3. In true Notre Dame fashion, they have given Brian Kelly a 15-year, $250 million extension.
- The baseball playoffs start today. Who the hell would have known? I can't tell you who's going to win the World Series, but I can tell you it won't be the Reds.
- The coaching at the end of the LSU/Tennessee game was the worst in history. I still can't figure out who screwed up the final minute of that game worse. Les Miles couldn't figure out substitutions or the clock and then watched his center snap the ball to New Orleans. Derek Dooley and crew saw LSU substituting and tried to do some subbing of their own. That's not the worst idea in the world, but it confused the Vols so badly, they had 13 players on the field for the last play. Just a damn disaster. I would compare the situation to a car wreck, but that would be an insult to car wrecks everywhere.
- If you've ever wanted to see what a rat looks like naked, you're in luck! Diana Taurasi is naked in ESPN the Magazine. Why? The world may never know.
- LeBron and the Heat are going to be really good. Were you able to see any of their first preseason game last night? If not, you missed out on a show. LeBron is absolutely unstoppable when he wants to go to the rim. Also, most people seem to have forgotten just how good Chris Bosh is. The guy is super talented, even if he did take time off from basketball this summer to promote Avatar.
- If Kevin Kolb plays well, will he usurp Mike Vick as the Eagles starter? I'm guessing if the people that run the team, the fans, want him starting, he will start. That's how it works in Philly, right?
- Only 9 days until Midnight Madness. Thank God/Allah/Buddha/Mitch.
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01 October 2010
I have no desire to talk about last week's picks (1-5), so let's move on. I started a couple rants about Rich Rodriguez, the World Equestrian Games, females and the morons who run the New York Jets, but none seem to be clicking. That's the price I pay for getting four hours of sleep. Oh well, on to this week's gems.
Oregon -6.5 vs. Stanford; Stanford absolutely dominated Notre Dame last weekend, but that shouldn't mean much. Notre Dame is awful. While Stanford has Andrew Luck and some playmakers around him, their defense isn't nearly as fast as Oregon's offense. Oregon is the fastest team in the country outside of the SEC. Plus, Oregon's playing at home in front of a crowd that will have been awake since 6AM from going to Gameday, so the crowd will be good and oiled up. I'm calling Oregon by 10+.- Washington State +27 @ UCLA; This a classic letdown game for UCLA. They had their biggest win in a couple years last week at Texas. The Bruins aren't exactly known to handle success well. They'll undoubtedly think the Cougars can't play with them (I know from experience, cougars play rough) and will think they've won just by showing up. UCLA will win, but not by 4 TDs.
- Georgia -4.5 @ Colorado; People seem to be writing off this Georgia team. Yes, they have three losses, but the losses are to three teams that will all be playing in the postseason this year. Also, Georgia has been without the best WR in the country for their first four games. AJ Green is playing this weekend and will surely have something to prove in his first game back from being suspended. And we can never forget how bad of a coach Colorado's Dan Hawkins is. Georgia will go to Boulder and win big.
- Tennessee +16.5 @ LSU; This game might be excruciatingly bad to watch. Both teams have offenses that are stagnant (at best) and pretty solid defenses. Frankly, I'm not sure LSU can score 17 points to get a cover over UT. Bet the Vols and they'll keep it close.
- Florida State -7 @ Virginia; I just cannot respect Virginia's football team in any way. They may be good, but I won't ever believe it. Florida State is better and more athletic at every position than UVA. As long as Florida State shows up (and they should), they will win by as many as they want. Take the 'Noles to win big against the Cavaliers.
- Vandy +7.5 @ UConn; UConn lost to Temple by two TDs. Vandy beat Ole Miss by two TDs. Temple is a joke and Ole Miss plays in the SEC. Give me a break, this line doesn't make any sense. I don't care how many nerds play for Vandy, they're still going to be better than the kids at UConn. I'm picking Vandy for the straight-up win, but you can play conservatively and take the points.
Last week: 1-5
Season: 10-11-3
