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13 September 2010
I may as well just write this as a letter to Smooth, since I think we're among the only people who have a passion for Team USA basketball. Most people probably spent Sunday watching the NFL, not the gold medal game in the FIBA World Championships, where Team USA knocked off Turkey behind a terrific performance from Kevin Durant to claim gold for the first time since 1994. That doesn't make you any less of a sports fan if you didn't watch it...it just makes you a bad American and an awful person.
Ok - perhaps that's a tad harsh. But for those who haven't been paying attention, the USA Basketball program is on a roll, and with so many young stars wanting to be a part of it, the future looks bright. It is once again cool to represent your country, and unless you're one of those people born without a heart, you've got to be excited to see how the 2012 Olympic roster will look. The general assumption is that most of the lineup from 2008 will return to defend their gold medal, but the competition for the roster spots will be fierce, given the performance of the players this summer, many of whom are only beginning to enter their prime.
With that, here's a look at the players who will likely be under consideration for 2012, and a prediction on how that roster could look. I've only included players that have either played with the men's national team before, or have been invited to take part in the summer camps, so there's always a chance we'll see some new names under consideration by 2012, such as John Wall or Blake Griffin. Regardless, that team is going to be a force to be reckoned with.
In alphabetical order...
Carmelo Anthony: Who knows what NBA team 'Melo will represent by that point, but he's a virtual lock for a roster spot in 2012 if he wants it. Big enough to play in the post, yet skilled enough to run the floor as a wing, he's a great fit for the international game, and he was a key player in 2008. When 'Melo is the 3rd or 4th scoring option on the floor, you know you've got a good team.
Chauncey Billups: Billups is a terrific leader and provides many of the intangibles needed on a roster full of stars. However, his athleticism and speed are average at this point, and he'll be 35 by the time the Olympics roll around. Combine that with a deep pool of point guards, and it's not likely we'll see him in London.
Carlos Boozer: Boozer was one of the last men off the bench in 2008, and while he's a skilled big man who brings toughness, it's unlikely he'd want to accept another limited role behind guys like Dwight Howard and Chris Bosh. There's no question he has the talent to play, but I'm betting he may choose not to return.
Chris Bosh: May have been the best big man for the USA in 2008, using his combination of size and athleticism to match up with the versatile international big men. His energy often provided a boost for the team off the bench, and he showed a toughness on the boards that we don't always see in the NBA. He's likely a lock for the 2012 roster.
Kobe Bryant: Kobe will be pushing 34 by the time the Games roll around, but it's be foolish to question whether he'll be able to compete for a roster spot. Kobe's leadership, toughness and competitiveness were key to the 2008 run, and if he decides to return in 2012, he's got a spot locked up, although two more years of deep playoff runs with the Lakers may affect his decision to play.
Tyson Chandler: Chandler brings size and shot-blocking, but doesn't really stand out enough in any one area to compete for a roster spot. He's limited offensively, and he spent a good deal of time on the bench this summer, despite being the tallest player on the roster. Barring an injury to Howard or Bosh, Chandler isn't likely to see London in 2012.
Stephen Curry: Curry is one of the best shooters in the NBA, but unfortunately for him, Team USA is very deep in the backcourt, and he will face an uphill climb to make the team. He lacks the playmaking ability of a Chris Paul or Deron Williams, and the athleticism and defensive ability of guys like Russell Westbrook. Curry may well represent the USA in the Olympics one day, but it's not likely to happen in 2012.
Kevin Durant: A lock among locks. Durant proved to be unguardable for much of the 2010 tournament, and his combination of size and skills make him the perfect player for the international game. Seriously, how do you stop this guy?
Tyreke Evans: An injury robbed Evans of a real chance to compete for a roster spot this summer, and unfortunately, that lack of experience will hurt him in 2012. He would seem to be a good fit for the international game with his size and strength in the backcourt, but without the experience of some of the other guards he'll be competing against, he's not likely to make the final cut. Keep an eye on him for down the road however.
Rudy Gay: Gay impressed many this summer with his willingness to accept a smaller role, and he was an integral part of the team winning gold. However, he faces deep competition on the wings, with LeBron, Kobe, 'Melo, Wade and Durant all likely to be on the roster. His versatility gives him a shot to make the final roster, but he needs to show he can continue to accept a limited role. It will be tough for him to make it, but don't count him out.
Eric Gordon: Gordon wasn't supposed to make the final roster this summer, but forced his way on with his shooting and toughness. Playing for the lowly Clippers, it's easy to forget just how talented Gordon is, and while he will face tough odds to make the 2012 roster, it'd be foolish to count him out again. He's got the ability to be a zone-buster, and his strength allows him to play through the hand-to-hand combat that passes for defense in international play.
Danny Granger: Granger is a talented scorer, but the rest of his game is still lacking, at least compared to the rest of the wings he will be competing against. Granger saw the fewest minutes of any player on the 2010 roster, and his chances to make the Olympic team in 2012 would seem to be pretty slim.
Dwight Howard: Like Bosh, he's pretty much a lock to make the 2012 team. His shot-blocking and athleticism are good fits for a team full of scorers, and his personality meshed well with the other stars in 2008. Barring injury, look for Howard to return to help defend the gold medal.
Andre Iguodala: Iguodala has struggled at times as the go-to scorer for the 76ers, but he had a phenomenal summer, carving out a role with his defense and versatility. He can guard four positions, and his athleticism allows him to make up for a lack of height in the post. If he continues to focus on defense and making hustle plays, he will be a tough player to cut in 2012, and he could ultimately fill the role that Tayshaun Prince filled in 2008.
LeBron James: Like Durant, 'Melo and Kobe, LeBron is a lock to make the roster as long as he wants to. With so many other scorers in 2008, LeBron was able to serve as a playmaker on offense, and his size allowed him to guard any position on the floor. LeBron has taken a lot of criticism this summer, but there's no denying his talent. Look for him to return in 2012.
Jason Kidd: Kidd will be 39 in 2012, and he's already indicated he doesn't plan to play in any more international tournaments. His leadership was key to the 2008 run, and he leaves Team USA in good hands with Chris Paul and Deron Williams running the point. Kidd's record in international play as a professional? A mere 56 - 0.
David Lee: Lee was forced to withdraw from the team this summer after an injury, but he would seem to be a good fit for the 2012 roster. Lee is a great rebounder, is able to score without plays being run for him, and plays with a ton of energy, making him an ideal fit alongside the scoring stars on the roster. If he's healthy, look for him to get a long look in 2012.
Brook Lopez: Lopez is one of the better young bigs in the league, but his game might not translate well to Team USA. Could he still thrive when he's not one of the main scoring options? Can he rebound and defend against international bigs, many of whom can step away from the basket? There's no question he has the ability to be a great player, and his size will give him a chance to make the final cut, but there's still some questions that need to be answered before he's considered a lock.
Robin Lopez: Although not as skilled as his twin, Robin may actually be a better fit for Team USA. He's a tenacious rebounder and defender, and he doesn't mind doing the dirty work on a team full of stars. Furthermore, he's used to playing in an up-tempo system, and he runs the floor well for a big man. As with Lee, health will be the key for Robin's chances to make the final cut.
Kevin Love: For a guy who isn't a great athlete, Love is one of the best rebounders in the league. He's got a high basketball IQ, knows how to position his body, and refuses to be outworked on the glass. He's also a terrific passer, and his outlet passing is a great weapon in the fast-break offense of Team USA. With his production and team-first attitude this summer, it wouldn't be a surprise to see Love heading to London in 2012.
OJ Mayo: Mayo is incredibly skilled and is one of the brighter young stars in the league. However, I don't know that he does any one thing well enough to make the final cut for Team USA, which was proven when he didn't make the final roster this summer. He's a good scorer and can create for others, but he doesn't stand out enough in either area, especially when competing against a deep stable of talented guards. Like Evans and Curry, his best chances of playing internationally may come after 2012.
Lamar Odom: Odom was a critical factor in Team USA winning gold this summer, using his versatility in the post to create mismatches. However, he'll be pushing 33 by the time the Olympics roll around, and there will be better competition for the roster spots at that point, with Lee and the Lopez twins healthy. However, don't count him out. With his international experience and leadership, he's got a pretty good chance to make the roster, as long as he still wants to.
Chris Paul: CP3 is rumored to be anxious to return in 2012, and he's got a roster spot if he wants it, although the point guard position is one of the deepest in the league. Paul's quickness and passing are tailor-made for Team USA, and he'll bring valuable experience from the 2008 gold medal run. It also doesn't hurt that he's close friends with LeBron, Wade and much of the other core from 2008. Expect to see him in London.
Tayshaun Prince: Prince turned out to be a valuable contributor in 2008, using his versatility and unselfishness to quietly fill a role off the bench as a defensive stopper. While he would be a welcome addition to the 2012 roster, he's far from a lock to return, and it's been assumed he won't play again. A lot can happen in two years, but at this point, it seems unlikely we'll see Tayshaun in 2012.
Michael Redd: Like Prince, Redd is unlikely to return in 2012 to help defend the gold medal. Injuries have hindered him in recent years, and he'll be 33 in 2012. Although his shooting is an asset, that void can be filled by Durant and some of the other younger guards like Gordon or Curry. With so many young guards vying for a roster spot, don't expect to see Redd in London.
Derrick Rose: Rose appears to be in pretty good position for 2012, although the lack of a consistent shot may hurt him. However, he's an emerging superstar and his speed is almost unmatched in the open floor. He'll face stiff competition to make the roster, but as long as he continues to improve, he's got a great chance to wear the red, white and blue in 2012.
Amare Stoudemire: Amare is one of the best post scorers in the league, and his thunderous dunks have become a staple on the highlight reels. However, similar to Brook Lopez, questions exist about his fit on the roster. Could he accept a smaller role on the offensive end and still be a defensive presence? Would be be okay coming off the bench? With so many other young bigs like Love, Lee and Robin Lopez looking like better fits for the roster, as well as the expected return of Howard and Bosh, it seems unlikely we'll see Amare in 2012.
Dwyane Wade: Wade was arguably the best player for much of the 2008 run, and he is expected to return in 2012. He was willing to accept a reserve role, but found himself on the floor at the end of many games, and his unselfishness earned rave reviews from the USA basketball staff. Wade is still one of the most explosive scorers in the world, and he is a lock to make the roster.
Russell Westbrook: Westbrook opened a lot of eyes this summer, and he is in great position to make the Olympic roster. He's not a pure point guard, but his ability to play off the ball means he can be paired with Paul or Deron Williams on the floor and the offense will be fine. He's also one of the most explosive athletes in the league, and his defense and energy were key for Team USA this summer. Look for him to get a long look in 2012.
Deron Williams: Like Paul, Williams' experience in 2008 gives him a distinct advantage to make the team, even with the young guards pushing for roster spots. Williams is strong enough to absorb physical contact, but also quick enough to get to the basket at will. Furthermore, he showed the ability to play off the ball at times in 2008. Barring injury, Williams will be on the 2012 team.
So where does this leave us? We'll assume that LeBron, Carmelo, Kobe, Wade, Howard, Bosh, Williams and Paul will return from the 2008 team. Durant is a lock to fill one of the four open spots, leaving three spots left to fill. I'll take Westbrook and Love to fill two of those, and in a slight surprise, I'll look to Iguodala to fill the final spot, using his defense to win over the coaches one more time. Although there's only three true bigs on this roster, guys like Carmelo, LeBron and Durant have shown the ability to play the power forward spot in international play, and Iguodala can even fill down low for stretches. The biggest question might be figuring out the starting lineup for this team. You have to figure Howard starts at center, but other than that, the rest of the starting spots could be tough to call. Assuming Wade is okay with coming off the bench again, some combination of LeBron, Kobe, Camelo and Durant will start on the wings, and it's likely Paul or Williams will start at the point. Let's say Paul earns the starting nod, along with Kobe, LeBron and Carmelo. Can you imagine a team that brings Dwyane Wade and Kevin Durant off the bench, not to mention Deron Williams and Chris Bosh? Scary thought for the rest of the world, right Smooth?
