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11 March 2010
College basketball has officially reached postseason play. We're in the middle of Championship Week, and that leads to a big question. What wins championships?
Many things can lead a team to victory. We saw Montana ride a single stand-out performance by Anthony Johnson to win their conference tournament on Wednesday night. Coaching decisions are rumored to win and lose games for teams in tournament play. Match ups are always talked about when you're facing a lose-and-go-home situation. Talent, defense, and free throw shooting all make the list of things that will be talked about heavily in the next two weeks.
For my money, if you want to win basketball games in postseason play, give me possessions. Talent and coaching ability can override possessions. A free throw shooting differential can win a tight game. But when it comes down to who wins ball games - and we don't have to exclude this talk to basketball - possessions are what matters.
This leads to a secondary question. How exactly does a team come by (or lose) possessions in a game. A very simplistic way to look at basketball is to consider a gain in possession as doing two things, offensive rebounding and stealing the ball from the opponent. Alternatively, losing a possession would require a team to turn the ball over. So how do some of the teams in the NCAA basketball rate on valuing the basketball? Let's look at a couple of our homer teams, the number one team in the nation, a team that has been ranked in the top ten all year, and a team that has struggled throughout the year.
First, we'll consider Kansas. They've been ranked at the top of the polls all year and enter the Big 12 tourney ranked ahead of everyone. Kansas has amassed 371 offensive rebounds, 267 steals, and turned the ball over 393 times on the year. That means their simple possession ratio stands at +245 for the year. KU has played 31 games this year, so they have averaged just under eight more possessions than their opponent on the year. This could have something to do with their 29-2 record.
Kentucky and Duke have both been at the top of the rankings throughout the year as well. They have both done well in winning extra possessions as well. UK has a +183 (410,223,450) mark on the year while Duke is +288 (407,216,335) on possessions this year. This tells me that Duke and Kentucky both rebound the ball exceptionally well on the offensive end, but neither forces as many steals as Kansas. In addition, the turnover differential between these two teams (115) tells me that Duke values the ball much more than Kentucky to the tune of nearly 4 turnovers per game.
Of course three of the top teams in the nation will always have stellar statistics, but what about middle of the rankings and poor performing teams? Well, Tennessee has been a contender in the SEC all year and have hovered in the teens in the rankings all year. On the year, they are +162 (305,246,389) on possessions. This shows that Tennessee is both a high turnover and high forced turnover team. It also shows that they don't rebound extremely well on the offensive glass, which is evident by their lack of dominant post play. The high number in forced turnovers; however, shows that they have active wing and guard players that equates to a lot of steals.
On the other side of the coin, the Indiana Hoosiers have struggled to a 10-20 record on the year. IU is only +79 (325,209,455) in possessions on the year. Indiana's 4-14 record in conference means that most of that positive differential occurred against inferior opposition in out of conference play. Their 455 turnover and 209 steal numbers are actually quite similar to Kentucky's; however, they lack the size inside to make up possessions on the offensive glass (to the tune of nearly 100 less second chances on the year).
So what does it all mean? Well, at the end of the day possessions are only what you make of them. If you have the talent to convert field goals at a 50% clip and play solid defense, you may get through some games with fewer possessions, and you may even be able to win a title doing so. When tournament play starts you'd better not depend on talent alone. You had better value the basketball, play solid defense, and make sure to block out on the defensive end. While Kentucky and many other teams are very talented, Coach K and Coach Self's squads do a good job of earning extra possessions throughout the game. When the pressure is on that may be enough to allow their teams to make a deep run in March.
