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16 February 2010
Kentucky goes in to Starkville tonight to battle the home team Bulldogs. Here's what to watch for in a late Tuesday night game.
- Kentucky will break a three game losing streak to MSU. Let's get the prediction out of the way. Mississippi State has a lot to play for tonight. They were expected to run away with the SEC West and thus far they have not played quite up to expectations. MSU is 6-4 in conference, putting them at the top of the West with Arkansas, but many believed them to be in contention for the overall league title in the preseason. Look for MSU to try to take a step toward that goal by knocking off first place Kentucky tonight. I don't see it happening and think UK pulls off a close 78-74 game on the road.
- Jarvis Varna(r)do will block several shots but not foul out. Every time Kentucky plays MSU I hear the same things from fans. "If we can get a couple early fouls on Varnado we'll be okay." This has not been the story in Varnado's previous games against Kentucky. Varnado is possibly the greatest shot blocker to ever play college basketball and this is because he is tall, long, and has unparalleled timing. This last point is why Varnado doesn't typically get into a lot of foul trouble. The first two aspects give him the ability to stay on the floor until the last moment. His height and length put him in a position to play the shot and not the possibility of a shot. Most shot blockers anticipate the shot, time their jump, and then go after the ball aggressively. Varnado has the luxury of sitting back and waiting for the shot to come out before getting off the floor quickly and altering its trajectory. This is why he doesn't get in foul trouble as early as most big men. It also means head fakes are not as successful as they are against other bigs. Kentucky would do well to give it to Cousins early to try to draw some body fouls against the big man. If that fails, getting Wall and Bledsoe to drive and dish at the rim could be their most effective weapon.
- DeMarcus Cousins will rebound from his 5 point performance and shut MSU fans up. Even with Varnado guarding Cousins, I think he will have a big game tonight. Varnado dominates a lot of post players by giving them space. This allows him to use his length to avoid body fouls and still reject several shots. Cousins is relentless in drawing body contact on the inside. While I doubt Varnado will allow Cousins to use his body to draw a lot of early fouls, I think that Cousins will be able to use his body enough to keep Varnado out of good shot blocking position. Also, look for Cousins to try to use the spin move to get to the other side of the rim to finish (the penetrating guards will use this technique as well). When you go across the rim for the finish you effectively put the defensive player "in jail" (as Rick Pitino would call it) and do not allow him to come get the blocked shot.
So there you have it. Just a couple of keys to the game. Look for MSU to shoot a lot of threes and look for Kentucky's guards to have big rebounding nights. If UK doesn't control the defensive glass on the long rebounds my 78-74 score may not hold up; or it may end up being in the Bulldogs' favor.
