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04 March 2010
Kentucky moved to 28-2 on the season after their win on the road at Georgia on Wednesday. That brings their winning percentage to 93.3% on the year, or 0.933 as it looks in the standings. The question is, can UK reach the mythical 0.900 in the standings at the end of the year?
In the last 10 seasons (counting 2010) only one team has won the national championship and finished with a win percentage greater than 90%. That was the phenomenal 2008 Kansas team that won 92.5% of their games. Every other national champion since 2000 has had a win percentage of greater than 82%. Michigan State in 2000 drags up that field at 82.1%, which again shows how dangerous Thomas Izzo is in tournament play.
What does Kentucky have to do to finish the season above nine hundred? Well, it depends greatly on their SEC tournament run. Oh, and that little contest on Sunday against Florida.
Situation 1: Loss to Florida on Sunday. If UK loses to Florida on Sunday in Ruppthey will drop to 28-3 on the season. To win 90% of their games on for the year they would need to go at least 36-4. That would mean they would need to go to the championship game of the SEC tournament, lose, and then win the NCAA tournament. Alternatively, they could win the SEC tournament and go to the NCAA tournament final and lose and still end with a 36-4 record. I'm sure Cats fans everywhere would trade a chance at their 937th SEC tourney championship for an 8th ring. Either way, a loss to Florida at home on Sunday would require a run to both tournament championships to achieve a 90% win percentage on the year.
Situations 2: Win vs. Florida in last regular season game. This is where it gets interesting. Beating Florida on Sunday puts UK at 29-2 on the season. They still need to get to the 36-4 point to get past the 90% win percentage on the year. That allows them to still lose in the SEC tournament and the NCAA tournament. They'd need 7 wins split between the two tournaments to get to this level. If they won out in the SEC tournament, they wouldn't even have to make the Final Four to finish at 90% for the year. An Elite Eight would accomplish that.
If UK were to win out the national championship, they could lose in the first round of the SEC tournament and still end up 35-3. This would give them a 92.1% win percentage on the year.
The bottom line is the 2010 Kentucky basketball team has put themselves in a unique position to finish the year with a line of greater than 0.900 in the results column. Kansas also shares this position, as they look to repeat their success of two years ago. The bottom line is that either of these teams could win it all and be one of the best teams to play in the last decade. A conference tournament win is not a requirement for either team to be amongst the upper echelon in win percentage, but as everyone knows, you have to win it all to be considered amongst the best in history. Here's to hoping Kentucky can just put together a late season 10 game win streak. If not, it'll still be one Hell of a season.
